Shawn's Stuff

My life with the occasional political or sports talk.

Thursday, October 12, 2006

NHL Eastern Conference Predictions



See my other post for the West. I've been really busy so it's been hard to have the time to write this. I really have wanted to!

So now the east. I've been having a lot of trouble with the east. However, we're over a week into the season and I'm long long LONG overdue.

Eastern Conference


1) Ottawa Senators: Boy this doesn't look good when they're 1-2 and didn't look very good in any of the games. However, when I look at the talent in the league I still believe they are the best team in the east. With all the changes they've made I think it's going to take a while for the team to gel. They have to figure out the lines, the chemistry, all of that stuff. Is Gerber a question mark? Depends on his self confidence. Can he handle the spotlight in Ottawa? Otherwise I'm not worried, he was very consistent all season. They also have to get Volchenkov to play a more consistent game. I saw so much potential in that guy. Damn I'm somewhat concerned about this though. I do think they'll pull things together, look at the damn talent.

2) New York Rangers: The team is just as good as last year. Take off Rucinski and give us Shanahan? Tell me that's not an upgrade. Have trouble in the playoffs, so you add Aaron Ward and Matt Cullen from the Stanley Cup Champions. I love the moves. They have two reliable goaltenders. They added several Cup Rings in the off season. They have the most talented offensive player in the NHL in Jagr. This is a good good good team. I don't think enough has been made about the moves they made. They also have some good young players coming up. They have penalty killers, they have a good PP, they are going to challenge for first.

3) Carolina Hurricanes: Lovely start there guys, but I'm not going to pretend I don't think they'll turn it around either. Very deep team, especially at forward. Their division is still relatively weak. However, one thing people forget here about the Hurricanes is that Cam Ward did not have a great season last year. Did he come around in the playoffs? Hey maybe, or maybe he had a great run and is coming back down to earth. I don't think they're the best team in the conference, I don't think they were last year. But hey, things happen in the playoffs. People get hurt, teams go on runs. That being said, they should be able to score at least. Give them some time.

4) Buffalo Sabres: If the Senators don't win the conference my money's on Buffalo. Wow I'm a genius eh? Everyone else says the same thing. Still, they're another very deep team. They lost McKee, but added Spacek. McKee is a lot more solid, but it's not really going to hurt them. They lost Dumont which I think could hurt them, it depends how well the rest of the forwards jump up. They are one of the teams with a dominating goaltending duo so there are no off nights. Mind you, they also have a lot of injury prone players (Briere and Timmy C) and don't have any really elite scorers yet. I mean look at how a period of the CASH line nearly tanked the Sabres in a game the Senators had no right being in. Still, I like them at least third in the conference.

5) New Jersey Devils: Don't mess with Lou. Lots of people say the Devils basically cheated to get out from under the salary cap but I really really don't buy it. They dealt away a first round pick and Mogilny is injured. That to be is legitimate, it's not like either guy is going to be playing for them. They didn't escape anything but other than the hopes of other general managers. Meanwhile, the Devils kept their entire core in tact. The team stunk without Elias for half of last year, and now he's going to be there all season to truly establish himself as one of the league's best and most reliable players. The defense is solid if unspectacular. There are almost no guys who can't play a 2-way game on the team. Oh, and that Brodeur guy. They are very vulnerable in case of major injuries (Elias, Brodeur or Rafalski goes down and that's tailspin material) but none of their really important guys are injury prone so no reason to worry yet. Could be the scariest team come playoff team if they add another scorer around the deadline. Oh, and they have the room to do it.

6) Montreal Canadiens: I don't get any of the predictions putting these guys out of the playoffs. To me the top 6 in the east are very solid. Montreal has very few weaknesses outside of a 2nd line C and those are hard to come by in a 30 team league. Their defense has 6 solid guys, with 2 or 3 on top who would be in any team's top 4. They don't have a star stud d-man but few do. Plus Markov could still emerge. The wingers are deadly. Ryder, Samsonov, Kovalev... that's talent. The PP should be good given some time. They have a very strong duo in goal, and hell a lot of teams do now. I don't see where many of these magical trades of starters are going to happen because so many teams have 2 reliable guys and it's becomming almost a requirement. Why the hell did it take Edmonton so long to get ONE last year? Anyway I like the Habs, they just happened to be over matched in their own division so they'll be about in the same spot as last year. Remember last year, when they had Carolina on the ropes before someone's stick took out Koivu's eye. Also remember last year a lot of pundits had the Canadiens missing the playoffs and they made it. Also remember Bob Gainey is smarter than you.

7) Philidelphia Flyers: I hate the damn Flyers, and to be frank they didn't do that much to address their needs. Their defense was big and slow, so they did... nothing. Their goaltending sucked so they did... nothing. But hey, they got Geoff Sanderson and Kyle Calder, so watch out. Same team as last year except their goaltenders are even less confident and Forsberg's body could tear at any second. If that happens, goodbye playoffs. As it is, goodbye in the first round. I will add that I love Carter, Richards and Pitkanen - I'd trade almost anyone to get Pitkanen. Still, they're not good enough. Also remember Bob Clarke is an asshole. I'm sorry, I know I don't know him, I must have gone crazy with the cancer or something.

8) Florida Panthers: I agonized over this one. I think this spot is going to be the toughest, most hotly contested position in the conference. So why Florida? They've had a young core of players on the cusp of a break through for a while. Losing Luongo doesn't eliminate that. Horton for example was a step away from being a 35-40 goal scorer. Weiss just needs a couple of more steps to put up 50-60 points. Bouwmeester is not far from being a #1 in this league. So you lose Luongo, but Auld is more than capeable of starting in this league. He held his own in Vancouver last year and was hardly their problem. In fact he had some terrific games that impressed the heck out of me. His numbers were fine and he'll do well. Belfour is a good veteran for him to learn from. Bertuzzi should have 80 points or so playing with the guys there and under less pressure. Jokinen broke through last year and showed he's at least a PPG player. This is a team that's ready to make the playoffs. They also have some good veteran leadership in Joe and Gary - that dastardly Toronto duo. Plus they had a good run at the end of last season. I see it happening. I've talked myself into it.

One new playoff team of 8, how risky. So who won't make it?

9) Toronto Maple Leafs: Sorry Dad. This might get much worse if you keep getting injuries on D. Toronto's scoring depth is paper thin. Seriously, you could punch a hole through it with a sponge. But I love Kubina, and I think he's a very solid anchor to a pretty good group. He should've come to Edmonton. Oh, but Gill stinks, really stinks, like sucks a lot. They're going to be a little mistake prone... and they do have some decent 2-way forwards to cover up. Still, they have to be able to score. Where is that going to come from? Unless Kyle Wellwood really is ready to put up 100 points I'm not sold. Good start for Raycroft - and we'll see how that lasts.

10) Tampa Bay Lightning: Depth? Who needs depth? Seriously what to say about these guys. Richards, Lecavalier and St. Louis are the team. I like Denis fine, but who the hell is on D? Who is on the third line? They're going to get eaten alive by good teams. However, they're good enough to do pretty well against bad ones. I think this year will be a wake up call to Feaster that a few elite guys aren't enough.

11) Atlanta Thrashers: What did I just say? I may be totally wrong here, but if I'm right Waddell is out of the job. He's run out of time to get these guys to the next level. It's been said that elite teams have a good 1-2 punch at centre. It's never been said that elite teams have a 3-3-3-4 punch at centre. That right there is enough to tank them. Their D is average at best, their bottom wingers are weak. So the top guys are great and their goaltender seems terrific, that's not enough. Unless some guys on this team surprise the hell out of me, I don't think they've got a chance. But remember I said that about Carolina. So book it, Atlanta will win the cup.

12) Boston Bruins: They play in a tough division. Dave Lewis is a lousy couch. Tim Thomas is a career minor leaguer. Marc Savard has never done anything without the guys he played with last year. I love Bergeron. Boyes is OK, Sturm is a good player, and there are some solid role players. But there's too much fat at the top with Savard and Murray - both are going to underachieve big time. The goaltending isn't good enough, and the defense is weak at the bottom. Chara is going to be fine, I like Stuart, and Mara is a good offensive defenseman. However, the guys beyond them aren't solid enough in their own zone to keep the pucks out of the net. I think Buffalo, Ottawa and Montreal are going to chew this team up and spit them out for some massive goal totals this year. Sorry Z. Expect good things as their young goalies grow and the team gets turned over to Bergeron for good.

13) Pittsburgh Penguins: Crosby and Malkin are sure going to be fun to watch. This is a big season for Fleury in goal. He has to take the #1 job and prove he is getting better. No one expects a goalie this young to be the best in the league, but he has to show he's improving. There were lots of opportunities for the Penguins to do something and shore up their pitiful defense. They didn't. Doesn't matter how many young superstars you have if you can't clear the zone. Another high pick! I do expect Crosby to emerge as more potent than Ovechkin either this year or next. They were neck and neck, especially in the second half of last season, and Crosby is significantly younger. He'll be the better player, bank on it. That's my lock fo the decade.

14) New York Islanders: There's some talent here, but the team is such a gigantic mess I have no faith in them overcoming it. Hockey is a team sport where a stability and chemistry mean a great deal. When you are working in a miserable situation it'll impact you. Playing with Yashin, being coached by a powder keg, with a backup goalie general manager and an owner who wanted a Sumo goalie? Yeah that's ideal conditions. My apologies to the talented players on this team like Mike York, Witt, Zhitnik, Sillinger, Satan, Hunter, hell even Dipietro (except you'll never be as good as they hope) but good luck guys.

15) Washington Capitals: Have you SEEN this roster? Seriously? Semin looks pretty good, but never has one man team meant so much. There's nothing here. Zednik was just awful last year, maybe he rebounds. Kolzig is a very good goalie, but he's only getting older and his team is awful. There's no depth, no D, no anything. I don't know how they ever win.

So what happens come playoff time?

- Lou is going to probably bring in another depth defenseman because he never seems to think he needs more scoring. He'll be wrong. If he does add scoring, the Devils will be very scary.

- Muckler smartens up and brings in a veteran with singifant playoff experience and hopefully a RING. This will have to happen closer to the deadline due to money issues. Ideally the guy would be a Centre. Though I suppose Recchi from Pittsburgh is always a possibility. Some guys from the West could include Craig Conroy in LA (went to the Cup with Calgary), Weight in St. Louis (but he has a 2-year deal now so I dobut it), Bill Guerin in St. Louis (doesn't really fill a need though) Modano in Dallas (if things fall appart after he lost the C), Roenick in Phoenix (if he rebounds enough to be worth it), Nieuwendyk or Roberts in Florida (if they don't do as well as I think they will), Federov in Columbus (if he's a FA after this year), oh and here's a big longshot... Joe Sakic? Hey Colorado is going to suck. I really doubt it, but you never know.

- Buffalo is going to need someone to score the dirty goals on rebounds and tip ins, I think they'll miss Dumont. I doubt Biron gets dealt and his bitterness may cause some problems.

- Montreal needs what Ottawa needs, I bet they compete for the same guys.

- The Flyers won't add a goalie, they never do. If they do he'll suck.

First Round:

- Ottawa over Florida (5 games)
- New York Rangers over Phildelphia (6 games)
- Montreal over Carolina (7 games)
- New Jersey over Buffalo (7 games)

Second Round:

- Ottawa over Montreal (7 games)
- New Jersey over New York (6 games)

Conference Finals:

- Ottawa over New Jersey (6 games)

Stanley Cup Finals:

- Ottawa over Anaheim (7 games)

I just can't predict Chris Pronger winning the Stanley Cup. Guess where my head was and where my heart was. I'm going to keep trying with Ottawa so that one time I'm right. But I swear to god Muckler, if you don't add a veteran or two this year I hope you quit.

I'm not nearly as confident about my picks in the East as I am about the West. Interesting to note that I went so far out on a limb I predicted that 7 of the 8 teams that made the playoffs last year would make it back in this year. Prove me wrong, underdogs!

Hart Trophy: Joe Thornton (I see no reason why he won't again dominate the league in the regular season and be the biggest reason his team is in the playoffs. This is just enough time to move the trophy to Ovechkin and Crosby though.)

Art Ross: Thornton

Maurice Richard: Jaromir Jagr (More talent leaves the door open for him to score more goals.)

Norris Trophy: Wade Redden (He'll have another great season on a good team so his +/- will better than other contenders and he won't have a second #1 guy on his team as an excuse for voters to ignore him. However, Pronger and Niedermayer will. Plus Redden is a fresh face and Senators havn't won many individual awards. If not him back to Lidstrom.)

Jack Adams: Craig MacTavish (His team will have lost a lot of players from their run last year and yet he'll have adapted and brought them to battle for the division title. On top of that, he'll be rewarded somewhat for the run last year.)

That's all I'm going to bother with for now.

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