Shawn's Stuff

My life with the occasional political or sports talk.

Sunday, December 31, 2006

If it's broke, fix it!

(The Oilers D could use a kick in the ass like this Finish fellow is about to give Daniel Tjarnqvist)

Watching the last few games it's clear the breakout woes are only getting worse. Teams are keying in on this weakness and really exploiting it to get on top of the Oilers early. Once that happens everyone plays tighter and the forwards don't create the kind of chances needed to take things back. The forwards are worrying too much about the defensive zone due to the inability of our defense, and they're not creating the way we need them to. There's no flow to the Oiler game right now. It's getting desperate. There has to be a move.

Watching them against the Canucks it seems apparently Tjarnqvist is absolutely not suited to anything but a 5-6 role. Neither is Bergeron. Greene is too young to be anything more than that and so is Smid. Hejda has played a very solid and simple game when he's been in the lineup, but he's nothing much more than a 4-5-6 guy himself. He at least isn't mistake prone. That means the Oilers have only 2 top 4 defenders. Neither of those defenders is a #1 and they aren't elite #2s either. I like all our players, but if you're going to run with a depth unit of 6 guys in the back end they have to all be at least possible top 4 guys. It's OK to have a bunch of 5-6s when you have Pronger, but not when you're trying to split the load. That means we either need to land a #1 or 2 top 4 guys if this system is even going to have a hope in hell of working come playoff time.

Who are the options? The biggest problem with making a trade at this point in the season is that there's almost nobody out of the playoff race. The only teams I'm confident in saying won't make it are Philidelphia, Los Angeles, Phoenix and St. Louis. However, even the Blues and Yotes have been playing better hockey lately. Teams are not going to be selling their better players when they're trying to sell a playoff run. There may not be enough teams out of it come deadline time, and if that's the case we're really going to have to overpay in a trade. Thank goodness for lots of young talent. I think it's imperitive that Lowe tries to jump on this early like he did last year. The price only gets bigger the closer you get to the last day.

Possible Defensive Targets

Philidelphia (Worst record in hockey with no playoff hopes)

-Denis Gauthier: Gauthier is out hurt right now but may be a target for a lot of teams once he gets a few games in. He's a -6 so far this year, but he's been a plus player most of his career. Clearly a physical and maybe even a bit slow defenseman, but a guy who knows how to handle the game in his own zone and isn't prone to mistakes. Makes a bit too much money so it's a risk. However, if he works out he'd be locked up.
-Alexei Zhitnik: A quick defenseman with good offensive instincts and a very good shot. What worries me is his decision making. We don't need more risky passes in our zone and he's prone to the occasional mistake. Also just got moved so will he be again?

Florida (Falling behind the pace in their division but still in the race and may wait at least closer to the deadline unless it's a talent for talent deal)

-Ruslan Salei: Physical and nasty. 18 assists in the season so far and that'd rank pretty highly when compared to the guys we have so far. A couple of scouting reports say he also is prone to some numb nuts decisions in his own zone. Clearly all defensemen are at times, but god when we're looking around the key to any guy we get should be confidence and intelligent puck movement. Salei could be dealt if Florida falls off a bit more, but may not be the right guy.
-Mike Van Ryn: I don't think he's going to be available without giving up some significant pieces. Scouting reports and some casual observation tell me that Van Ryn is exactly the type of guy we need. TSN for one says he moves the puck well. Van Ryn is a maturing player with poise and a very reasonable contract that lasts beyond this year. Knowing Jacques Martin I can only assume he loves him. Van Ryn is also only -3 on a mediocre Panthers squad. I'd give up some very impressive talent to land him. This is not a guy you get in a rental deal, it'd have to likely be an overpay to get Florida to budge. Still, he'd make us instantly better.
-Jay Bouwmeester: We wish. Don't even pretend this is possible. Man the guy is +7 on Florida, I sure wish we got him and Horton. How much better would this team be right now if that was the trade instead of the one we did get? Just have to remind myself how much I like Smid's future.

Los Angeles (Poor record and not enough veteran talent to expect anything out of this season)

-Lubomir Visnovsky: Loves to skate the puck up the ice. Great passes and PP quarterback. The only real downfall of Visnovsky's game is his size so he'd be an ideal pairing for Smith or Matt Greene. Absolutely should be our primary target if he's available. Has a great contract with another year on it so he'll cost more than a rental. We can't expect a Spacek or Tarnstrom deal for a man of this caliber - if we get him or Van Ryn we'll pay through the nose to do it. Given the play of our defense they are both exactly the type of players we should pay that much to get.
-Mattias Norstrom: For a veteran stay at home defenseman he's had an off year. Given the contract Norstrom signed and his status as team captain I don't think this is a move either side makes.
-Brent Sopel: He's played very well so far this season. Sopel has a terrific shot and a strong offensive game, but he's not the guy to come in and fix our breakout issues.
-Rob Blake: Makes too much money for his declining game.
-Oleg Tverdovsky: His career is close to over and he'd be a downgrade on Bergeron at this point.

New Jersey (Some cap space issues with one particular player)

-Richard Matvichuk: Can't get back into the lineup when he's healthy because of the financial situation. He's a stable player who doesn't make many mistakes. Not particularely fast, but he's dependable and a good second option. Couldn't be our top pick up but as a second guy he'd work out.

New York Rangers (Free falling with a long losing streak, in the race but could fall out by the deadline)

-Michal Rozsival: He's +6 on a struggling Rangers team. Strong in his own zone but also has 15 assists on the year. Good passer, good decision maker and just an overall good defenseman. I'm not sure if they'd move him but I think he would easily slot himself into our top 4. Not a major impact player like Visnovsky or Van Ryn, but a big improvement and help with the break out for sure

Phoenix (Playing better lately and that may prevent them from making a move unfortunately, but they're still going to be sellers in time)

-Nick Boynton: Hasn't done much offenisvely, but he's reliable in the defensive zone. A strong player with still untapped potential and a decent contract. He's -7 on a bad team. Not really a stand out stat one way or the other. Again I think he'd be a strong pickup but more a top 4 upgrade than a major move.
-Derek Morris: Prone to giving the puck away and has never lived up to his offensive potential. Lots of people have tried to sell Morris as something more than he's proved to be in the NHL. I'd be unhappy if this is who we picked up.
-Ed Jovanovski: Too much money for too long a term. However, I did want to note he's played a lot better than he's been given credit for in some places. Plus he's only a -1. Also I'll use this spot to mention how we are not going to pry away one of their good young guys.

St. Louis (Playing much better hockey with Murray behind the bench but this is still not a playoff team)

-Christian Backman: As far as I know he's not a UFA so I don't know why he'd be moved. If he is... someone correct me. I've seen him play a few times and like how simple and effective his game is in the defensive zone. TSN also notes he's very good at moving the puck out of his zone. Simple stuff but what we desperately need. Still has some untapped potential and no huge contract to worry about. He's got a terrific +5 on the Blues and that's intriguing.
-Eric Brewer: We know his game and we know he'd be an upgrade on what we have. How much of one is hard to say given the nature of his time in St. Louis thus far. He's not going to be an impact player on the PP but he does have a good breakout game and is at least mostly reliable.
-Barrett Jackman: Another plus player on a bad team. In his case it's +3. Jackman is not going to contribute offensively, but he plays a simple and physical game. The main concerns about him are not reliability in his own zone, it's his injury history. I would love to grab Jackman, he'd be a huge upgrade defensively over almost anyone on our team. Not a big puck mover, but very sound.

Tampa Bay (Not enough depth on this team and their goaltending didn't improve enough so it looks like they may fall out of the race, but will it be by the deadline?)

-Dan Boyle: Putting up terrific numbers offensively and still barely a minus on a team that hasn't been playing well. Boyle does everything well and only really lacks size. He's a huge part of this Tampa team and one would imagnie he's only going to be up for grabs if they really are giving up on the season. Boyle is the best of all available defensemen in terms of the overall game he could bring to the team. He also has a Stanley Cup ring and his salary isn't out of whack. Tampa would be interested in some cheaper depth pieces too. Wouldn't MAB's contract be attractive with a cheap prospect like Gilbert who could step in this year. I imagine for any trade to occur they'd have to go on a really bad run.
-Filip Kuba: A very good season for Kuba thus far. He's a +4 with a lot of assists and a good overall game. Not a top pair talent but again an upgrade if Tampa starts selling.

There will be more options, especially in talent for talent deals or if any other teams go on big slides. As it stands though this is the core of guys that I can see us having a chance at. This is how I'd rank them when considering contract and talent.

1) Lubimir Visnovsky
2) Mike Van Ryn
3) Dan Boyle
4) Christian Backman
5) Barrett Jackman
6) Michal Rozsival
7) Nick Boynton
8) Filip Kuba
9) Eric Brewer
10) Ruslan Salei

(Edit: I'm very tempted to do a bunch of fantasy trades but I always hate how those come out. I'll note that only the first three guys on this list would be worth moving a 1rst round pick as part of a deal.)

4 Comments:

At 8:25 a.m., Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nice breakdown Shawn.

Good stuff.

Boyle is intriguing - Tampa is sinking and they need to clear cap space although getting them to give up their only good dman would cost a whack.

 
At 4:04 p.m., Anonymous Anonymous said...

About time you started making more Oilers posts... :)

Maybe you'll get your place in the Oilogosphere hot-off.

 
At 4:11 p.m., Anonymous Anonymous said...

With the rumours of Smith's demise growing with each failed clearance, the Oilers should be looking at a Van Ryn or Boynton type when they go shopping. A young guy just coming into his prime.

I like Sopel as a UFA rental.

The one team you didn't mention is Chicago - they have a bushel basket full of young D-man, but are light up front.
The Oilers have a bunch of young capable forwards.
To me, there is interesting possibilities there.

Good post, comprehensive and a good read.

 
At 4:36 p.m., Blogger Shawn said...

I know Chicago has been mention, but to me the last thing we need is another rookie or second year player.

 

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