Special Delivery

Justin Trudeau has given Gerard Kennedy's run for the Liberal leadership some much needed attention with this endorsement. How much Liberals actually value the endorsement is certainly a question no one can answer. I don't think the real value, in the short term at least, is necessarily that it alone will sway voters. However, Justin is a big name and the timing of this means Gerard can maybe get back some spotlight with very little time to go before the vote.

Justin Trudeau initially had me a bit skeptical. He gave a passionate eulogy for his father and the whole country was ready to crown him Prime Minister. I admire a man who can speak well publically, but I must say being passionate about your own father's death is not very unique. However, since that time he's stuck to his words about grassroots politics and gone all across Canada talking to people a lot of others don't talk to. I'm talking about young people and those interested in the future of the country and the Liberal party - but those who have very little power to decide its path. That's what he's been doing, and as a result it makes sense for him to line up beside the man who is championing that renewal.

As for the nation issue, I'm not sure this endorsement has anything to do with that. Kennedy hasn't taken a specific stand on the issue, but it is very hard to imagine he will go against the grain. Too bad. It's interesting to watch the whole thing play out at least, even if it does fill me with dread. (Incidently, saying you think the people of Quebec could constitute a cultural nation does not mean you are automatically going to agree with bringing this motion forward. I never said I didn't think they were myself - I just think it's none of the government's business and politicans are dealing with it for political points ONLY)

Kennedy has taken the tactic of shunning the negative and thus controversial war of words between Ignatieff, Rae and Dion. There are goods and bads politically in doing so. The biggest negative is that mudslinging gets press. Despite being third in delegate support, Kennedy appears to be a very distant fourth in the public eye. Nobody's talking about him outside of Liberal bloggers and the occasional profile piece.

The plus of course is that he isn't engaging in the divisive attacks. Clearly as a Kennedy supporter I'm biased, but how healed does this fractured party look when the leadership candidates are ripping each other appart. This has turned from what was supposed to be a debate about policy to one about character and leaderhip ability. Those are both important to a successful leader, but in the end all Liberals will suffer from the blows the frontrunners have dealt each other if one of them ends up standing above the pack. We also suffer from politicians changing their stances on the fly to win advantage - something unfortunately "perfected" by Paul Martin.

Can we take Bob Rae or Stephane Dion seriously when they shake Michael Ignatieff's hand and say "I back this man 100%!" if the big Iggy takes the top prize? Same thing if Rae wins. The two of them have been the source of and targets of most of the attacks. Dion launches a lot of attacks, but seems to avoid a lot launched back at him. Perhaps because as he gains momentum the top 2 don't want to give him anymore attention.

Regardless, do any of you see a similar problem if Kennedy were to win the leadership? All of his opponents could easily endorse his leadership without reeking of falseness. They havn't been attacking him, he hasn't been attacking them. He's been bringing forward policy initiatives and talking about going back to the grassroots of the party instead of dwelling on the old ways of getting things done.

Meanwhile, the top three candidates are going about doing things the old way.

I'd still chose any of them over the other political options we have in this country. At least as of this moment. However, Stephen Harper is a very skilled politician. He is not to be underestimated and this decision is crucial.

Of course there's a reason President Bush wins election after election after election - and its not because he plays nice. There's a reason Warren Kinsella writes a book about kicking ass in politics and talks about the success of going negative. It's a risky strategy. One I think surely best suited to someone who doesn't have as much support as the top 2 guys and who could sneak up on people as a sort consensus candidate.

Lets also not forget that a leadership race is different than an election between rival parties.

The real question is after the bottom 4 (Joe, Ken, Scott and Martha) drop off, who is going to have the least amount of votes in the next round? Seems like the stars are lining up for Dion and Kennedy to join forces when that happens - and it's just a matter of who it's behind.

When that happens it's up to Bob Rae to either shake his old friend and new rival's hand and crown him king - line up behind the others - or just let his delegates fall where they may. Given how ardently anti-Ignatieff Rae has been, it's hard to imagine that's where they'd go even with an endorsement.

So watch for it... when it's down to the big 4... 3rd or 4th may be the difference between leader or also ran. Justin Trudeau is one card Kennedy's team is playing now so that the bottom 4's delegates don't forget his name.

One good way to do that? Stand next to someone with the most recognizable name in Canadian Politics. But that's not going to be enough, and this week will be a real test of Kennedy's political savy. Should be fun.