NHL Western Conference Predictions

Hockey is back and thank god.

At work we're short staffed and I'm working too much. Clearly my personal life is going through some turmoil. I need something to bring me that every day joy.

Boy did it feel good Thursday night to come home from a meeting and watch Edmonton beat Calgary. The little things in life like that can sometimes be such a lift.

Anyhow, I meant to do my NHL predictions before the season started. But as I said, I've been quite busy. I don't think 3 games are really going to tell you enough that it would be cheating for me to do them now.

Last year in terms of playoff teams I was 5/8 in the Eastern Conference and 7/8 in the West. I predicted Vancouver would make it instead of Dallas. In the East I'll admit I did not see Carolina coming. This is what happens with predidctions. What did I say about the Hurricanes last year?

"I like a few players on this team. The end. Seriously though, yikes! They’ve got some good young players, and if they stay the course they could have a future, but this year is going to be painful."

Painful? Only for me as an Oiler fan. Damn Carolina. I do know that after that great run by Edmonton it's fun to have 4 new enemies in Detroit, San Jose, Anaheim and Carolina. I'll never like any of you!

I also didn't expect much from the Rangers or Buffalo. Clearly I didn't have the pulse of the East last year.

My October playoff predictions had Edmonton playing San Jose in the 2nd round (it did happen) but I also expected the Senators to beat the Sharks in the finals.

Clearly I was way off on that.

Finally, the one thing I did do a good job with was calling Joe Thornton as the Art Ross and Hart Trophy winner. That wasn't an easy task last year, so I was glad to have that one feather in my cap.

This year I'm hoping for much more success, though the league is as wide open as it has ever been. Lets start in the West!

Western Conference

The West is clearly the stronger conference in my eyes. However, the East won the cup last year and the season before that. Maybe the Western teams are beating each other up too much, and by the time they make the finals there's not enough gas left?

My most loved and hated teams are the last two to come out of this conference. Calgary in 2004 and Edmonton only a few months ago. So many changes, what can we expect?

1) Anaheim Ducks: This is a very depressing choice. I now hate Anaheim with a firery passion. In actuality, I didn't mind the Ducks much after the series this spring. They didn't put up enough of a fight to really be worthy of my hatred. They were a team with a lot of talented young guys and two classy and very talented veteran leaders (Niedermayer and Selanne). Now? They are the home of Fucking Chris Pronger, and have jumped ahead of everyone but Calgary and Vancouver in the list of my most hated teams. It's too bad, because they are a fun team. Bottom line here is the Ducks have 2/3 best defensemen in hockey. Both of them can play half the game. Their 5/6 defensemen aren't so hot, but who cares? They have two goaltenders who are worthy starters on almost any team in the league. If one falters or gets hurt, the other should be ready. The major question mark on this team is scoring depth. How long with Selanne's body hold up? If it doesn't, the exceptionally talented young guys on the team have to take a big step up. Getzlaf, Perry and Penner would all be welcome on my team - but are they ready to carry the load? For now it's safe to assume Selanne and McDonald will be the go-to guys with the young guys as complimentary scoring. Combine that with some very solid two-way forwards like Rob Niedermayer and Todd Marchant, and there's not a lot to dislike about this team.

2) Calgary Flames: I think the Oilers are a better team than Calgary, but I suspect it'll be easier to have a consistent regular season with the kind of solid defensive unit the Flames have. Still, I expect a dog fight between the two Alberta teams for top spot. Calgary is basically the exact same team that won the division last year with the addition of Tanguay. Leopold is no big loss to them, and Tanguay could be a huge gain. I thought he looked dangerous in his first game with Igilna, and they're still very early in developping any kind of chemistry. However, Calgary's scoring depth is so non-existant that this team has very little hope of going past the 2nd round. Teams will key in on the top line and it's lights out. In the regular season they'll have more room, a great defense (Phaneuff should be more poised this year) and the best goaltender in hockey.

3) Nashville Predators: This pick isn't as comfortable now that the Preds gave up 8 goals against the lowly Chicago Blackhawks. But Thomas Vokun doesn't suck, and the team is in a fairly weak division. Nashville has a very good group of forwards, and the addition of Jason Arnott can only solidify their top line. I do have some concerns over the loss of Witt and Markov, but their young D is very talented. Zidlicky and Timmonen are two of the better d-men in hockey, while Hamhuis and Suter are terrific young guns. A big question for Nashville is whether or not David Legwand will ever emerge as anything more than an average player. He's been mentioned as a guy ready to break out for a few season now, but it hasn't happened. Keep an eye on him, it's pretty much make or break time if he's ever going to take that leap.

4) Edmonton Oilers: I don't think the North West is as strong a division as it was last year. Colorado is significantly worse and I don't buy the Wild. Plus Vancouver has absolutely zero depth at any position. As a result, I believe two North West teams can get home ice advantage. There's only so much I can say about Edmonton that the other Oiler blogs and I havn't all ready said. It's the best forward group in hockey IMO. There are so many potential 20 goal scorers on this team it's mind blowing. Depth depth depth depth! It's so important in the NHL now. Look at the semi-finalists last year. Buffalo and Carolina were absolutely defined by their depth. Edmonton rolled 3 lines at least - and that's why the Ducks couldn't keep up. Roloson is also one of the best goalies in hockey over the last 5 years. He proved with his playoff run that his numbers were not merely a result of playing for the Wild. I expect he'll continue to prove that. As for the defense, of course I still have a ton of concerns about them, but there's reliable guys out there. No superstar, but I belive enough ability that we're one deadline deal away from a group the team can count on. Still, their D is the exact reason I don't think Edmonton can compete for the regular season title in the West as is.

5) Detroit Red Wings: They're still a very talented team in a fairly weak division. However, the losses of Yzerman and Shanahan mean alot to the character of the team. They didn't replace Shanny either, and he put up 40 goals last year. Lidstrom is a year older, and while he's the other guy in the 3 player top tier defensive group (with Pronger and Niedermayer) you never know when age start to catch up with him. Speaking of age, Dominik Hasek was going toe to toe with Kipper for the Vezina last season until his groin went riiiiiiiiip. For 750g that's a hell of a bargain, but with Chris Osgood this team may not make the playoffs. Datsyuk and Zetterberg will score a ton of points this year, but don't expect anything out of them in the playoffs. There's just not enough "it" on this team.

6) San Jose Sharks: The Sharks are going to lose 6 or 7 times to Anaheim this season, and that's going to cost them positioning in the West. Pronger owns Thornton, and the Sharks young defense just can't possible compete with Niedermayer and Prongs. San Jose is also even more a 2 line team this year. Two lines are enough to do a lot of damage, but not enough to go on a significant playoff run. I like the additions of Brown and Grier though, so perhaps a little bit of time will prove me wrong. Their defense is very young and unknown, quite similar to the Oilers D actually. They've got 2 reliable vets and a bunch of maybes. They've also got a similar 2 goalie situation to Anaheim in that if one guy falters there's someone else who is ready to go. I think San Jose could probably beat anyone in the West BUT Anaheim so if someone knocks the Ducks off they could be in the finals.

7) Dallas Stars: I really wanted to put them out of the playoffs this year, but I don't think that's going to happen. They've got a terrificly deep defensive group and an awesome regular season goalie. Turco is terrific until the pressure is on, and he's well protected. They made some good additions in the off season like solid two-way forward Jeff Halpern, developping centre Patrick Stefan, pesky Barnaby... I think Mike Ribeiro will thrive outside the pressure cooker of Montreal. He's got a lot of playmaking ability, it's just he's easily thrown off his game. Shouldn't be a problem in Dallas. Lindros will also benefit from being in Dallas, but it's better not to count on him in any predictions. He's more likely to be hurt than not. Still, Dallas has pretty good depth at forward, very good depth on D and a very strong goaltender. I don't think there's enough explosive talent here to go anywhere in the post-season, but there should be enough to get in.

8) Vancouver Canucks: Roberto Luongo and 1 line... but that's a GREAT goalie and GREAT line. Vancouver has no real depth so good luck going anywhere in April/May, but they'll win enough games thanks to goaltending and the talent they do have on top. Still, who the hell is going to score for them outside this top line? Matt Cooke? Defense is pretty good in the top 3, but the bottom 3 is weak. They're going to be a scary team to beat, and if Luongo gets hot they could certainly win a playoff round against anyone, but you aren't winning more than that without depth in this league.

So there are your playoff teams...

9) Minnesota Wild: I don't like the Wild as much as a lot of people seem to. They added a couple of strong offensive guys, but they also added some very injury prone guys. Demitra doesn't seem to play full seasons, while Johnsson is dealing with concussions. Those are dangerous, high risk players. Johnsson especially given his big deal. The Wild also complete re-organized what had been an effective defensive unit, so we'll see how they gel. They are going to be hard to play against as always, but their scoring doesn't scare me much beyond the top line. Fernandez is solid. Frankly, I think the Wild will be just about as good as they were last year. Tough to play against, one scary line, good goalie. No playoffs, but close.

10) Columbus Blue Jackets: These guys are going to be fun to watch, but their team still isn't strong enough. I am going to watch Columbus whenever I get a chance to on the Centre Ice package. Nash, Brule, Zherdev (when he gets his NHL legs) and Vborny. These are fun players. Modin and Carter both have some finish, so they should contribute with the young/skilled guys. Federov could score 60-70 points if he stays healthy with this lineup. Where the Jackets really hurt is on lines 3 and 4. There's not enough talent there. Their PK isn't nearly strong enough, they don't have strong enough checkers. They're going to be eaten alive by strong, deep forward groups like the Oilers. Plus, Adam Foote can only play so many minutes a game. Leclair is going to be a good one though, I really liked what I saw from him in his early starts.

11) Phoenix Cayotes: I really like their defense. Look at how the Cayotes held San Jose off the board today. They're not going to compete head to head when it comes to scoring ability, but that top 6 did a very strong job against one of the better scoring teams in the west. What a difference a year makes. Jovo, Ballard, Michalek, Boynton, Morris... that's a solid group. Cujo should hold up his end fine. I don't expect too many stolen games at his age, but he'll do the job. Bottom line for Phoenix is they're way too average. On the front end Nagy is the only game breaker here. Doan has pretty much established hi mself as "very good" now, and he's not going to take that next step. Comrie is pretty good offensive player with no two-way game. Reinprecht is average despite his first game agains the lowly Islanders. Roenick is still finished, and Nolan has always been overrated. I don't like this forward group at all, so it'll take Gretzky magically teaching them to score for Phoenix to make the playoffs.

12) Chicago Blackhawks: Marty Havlat is going to score 100 points if he stays healthy. That's a big if. Lets remember that Havlat has never ever been on a team's top line. On the Sens he got 2nd or 3rd line minutes. This guy is more than capeable of playing lot sof minutes 5 on 5 and on the PP. Hell, Havlat looked great killing penalties on Ottawa last fall. I think he's one of the best players in hockey, and will prove it if he can stay healthy. Chicago has a lot of talented young D, and they're about a year or two from being one of the best units in the league. If Aucoin can stay healthy this year he'll eat a lot of minutes, and that could be significant enough for Chicago for them to jump past Phoenix and Columbus. I also really hope Tuomo stays healthy, because the guy is so talented. He deserves a break.

13) LA Kings: Talented young team, and they're not ready. I don't think anyone involved in this organization expects them to make the playoffs. However, they're going to be fun to watch. I really don't know why Rob Blake is on this team, he stands out like a scorer on the Flames. His contract is going to make him impossible to move, and he will not be there by the time LA is ready to compete. They're not going to be easy to beat, but all their key players are too young for this team to make the playoffs.

14) Colorado Avalanche: This team could be a disaster. I feel bad for Joe Sakic, because he's got way too much on his shoulders this year. He'll get his points, and playing with Hejduk and Svatos they should have a pretty good power play. However, when you talk about forward depth, the Avalanche just have NONE. Wolski is on the 2nd line here. That's crazy. Turgeon and Arnason are such duds when it comes to the 2-way game, they're going to be -20 each. The D is very shallow, with Liles and Leopold as your top 2 guys and not nearly enough talent. Finally, Theodore is a complete head case and I have no confidence in him rebounding. When they win it'll be Joe willing them to win. I demand the Oilers take at least 6 of 8 from them.

15) St. Louis Blues: They signed a bunch of free agents, but guys they're just spinning the wheels here. Weight, Guerin, Tkachuk... yeah that's it. Rucinski is going to be a bust away from the perfect situation for him in NY. The D is young and bad. Sanford didn't have a good pre-season, and Manny doesn't seem to have recovered mentally from all that happened to him these past few months. I think they're going to be ugly again this year.

So what happens come playoff time?

- Brian Burke is going to smartly add a veteran scorer with playoff experience at the deadline. Take a look at this year's UFAs and bank on one of them coming to Anaheim.

- Edmonton and San Jose are going to be competing for a veteran or two on D, and the GM who gets the better guy for the better price is going to be rewarded with a trip to the conference finals.

- Calgary is once again not going to add enough fire power and tank in the playoffs.

- Nashville is either going to add some leadership or go through another season of playoff growing pains.

First Round:

- Anaheim over Vancouver (5 games)
- Calgary over Dallas (7 games)
- San Jose over Nashville (6 games)
- Edmonton over Detroit (5 games)

Second Round:

- Anaheim over San Jose (5 games - Pronger owns Thornton)
- Edmonton over Calgary (6 games)

Conference Finals:

- Anaheim over Edmonton (7 angry, violent games)

So basically I'm predicting a fun run that'll end in heart break against that bastard Pronger. Yeah, I don't know why I'd wish that on myself.

OK, this took a long time. I'll get myself together and try to do the Eastern Conference later today. I need to make sure the first few days of the year don't impact my thinking too much.

What do you all think?

From Where I Sit for Tuesday, October 3rd 2006

From Where I Sit article for Tuesday, October 3rd 2006

So today the Conservatives are unveiling their first stab at a "Made in Canada" environmental plan.

Environment Minister Rona Ambrose will apparently announce a regulation for car emissions.

That's a great step, it's the first time auto makers will face any kind of regulations.

Before they were volunteering to meet standards, and that'll only go so far.

Of course companies are worried about how much it's going to cost, but lets remember the automotive and oil indutries have held down environmentally friendly advancements like the electric car for years. I'm not going to be crying too many tears for them on this one.

Here's what I don't get about this announcement; what took so long?

The Conservatives have been in office since early this year.

They had years before that to plan for being in government.

We've always heard how they don't agree with Kyoto (and that's absolutely another argument I could have with them) but if they always knwe you wern't going to follow Kyoto shouldn't the Torries have been ready with SOMETHING before now?

The only action they've taken since taking office is cancelling a bunch of initiaves like the One Tonne Challenge. Their lack of preperation has us even further behind the 8-ball than the last Liberal government did.

We talk a lot about the environment in Canada, and sure don't back it up.

It's about time we got something from the Conservatives, but it's only a SMALL step and it should've come sooner.

That's from Where I Sit, I'm Shawn Mullin.

Sad News

I don't want people hearing this second hand. Not that I feel like this is something that I should be talking about on a public setting, but I wanted to make sure this got out in a correct way.

Amy and I have broken up, but it's very important that no one should feel any ill will towards her. She has been as classy and respectful as a person can be on this very difficult day for us. I think I can speak for her when I say that as much as two people can possibly end on a note of respect and love - I believe we have done that.

While this feels like a very difficult moment for me and I'm sure for her right now, I hope every one of my friends who considers her a friend will continue to do so. Even if she's not dating me she's still an awesome person. I hope you will only think of her in the best possible terms, and she deserves nothing less.

I don't regret a second of any of it... and you can rest easy knowing that neither of us did anything worthy of scorn.

Anyway, be thinking of me and of Amy today.