Defense of Champions

I have been saying in a few places that the Edmonton Oilers have a boatload of acceptable bottom pairing defensemen.

In fact, I'd suggest Tjarnqvist, Hejda, Bergeron, Smid and Greene would all make terrific 5/6 defensemen on a team with a good or even average top 4.

I also suspect Gilbert, Roy, Syvret and maybe even Chorney could fill similar 5/6 roles effectively.

That's impressive bottom pairing depth. Striking even. However, it all means absolutely nothing when you only have two guys who are legitimate top 4 defenders.

Steve Staios and especially Jason Smith have the weight of the entire city of Edmonton on their shoulders. They have the weight of Chris Pronger's departure on their shoulders. They have the weight of a team coming off an appearance in the finals on their shoulders. They have the weight of 12 forwards who aren't playing confidently because of their awful defense on their shoulders. They have the weight of a goalie who'd been bailing them out but is getting tired on their shoulders.

It's all too damn much for Jason Smith and Steve Staios.

These guys are top 4 defensemen on any team, and in another situation no one is going to be unhappy with them. In this situation Kevin Lowe and Craig MacTavish are just plain asking too much of the poor guys.

Some of us (myself included) felt a strong group of forwards would be able to overcome our current situation at last until the deadline. At that point adding one pretty good veteran should be enoughl. A little examination of NHL history proves us wrong as much as the current results do.

• The Carolina Hurricanes of 2005-06 had a defense that we enjoyed comparing our group to in pre-season projections. However, I would suggest Kaberle, Hedican, Ward, Commodore and Wesley all qualify as potential top 4 defensemen. Wallin still would rank as fairly inexperienced and more at the 5/6 level. Tverdovsky was also at the 5/6 level but barely played in the playoffs. The "no #1 defensive depth" system can work if you have 5 guys who could all be relied upon as at least second pairing guys. That means the workload is split appropriately among reliable guys. Ask yourself who among the defensemen on the Edmonton this year would supplant someone from Carolina's group last year. I would suggest only Jason Smith and Steve Staios. The comparison unfortunately does not hold up. Remember also that the Hurricanes had a relatively weak group on defense for a Cup champion.
  
• The Edmonton Oilers of 2005-06 had a defense dominated by one of the three truly elite defenders in the game today. Chris Pronger played half the game every night including a spot as our primary shut down man and offensive quarterback. There were also 4 defensemen who would legitimately qualify on almost any team's top 4. Bergeron, Greene and Tanstrom were acceptable as 5/6 guys in this case because we only needed them to play limited minutes with such a solid group ahead of them.
• The 2003-04 Tampa Bay Lightning didn't have anyone who would even compare to a Chris Pronger. They also wern't carried by their defense, but the group was certainly a capeable one. Both Dan Boyle and Pavel Kubina at the time would find their place on the top pairing of almost any team in hockey. Sydor is on perhaps a bit of a downturn, but still playing at a top 4 level. Brad Lukowich had all ready been through a few playoff wars with Dallas and Tampa and was by no means a shaky rookie. Sarich is into his 4th year of hockey and is reliable enough. They also rotate in a couple of other guys into that 6th spot throughout the playoffs. Kubina and Boyle carry a lot of the load, but importantly are not being backed up by a bunch of kids. At the very least Boyle, Kubina and Sydor are top 4 on most teams. Once again I'd suggest only Smith and Staios from this year's Oilers would supplant anyone on this unit. However, our 5/6 guys would look fine playing that role on this team because they wouldn't be relied upon for as much.
  
• The 2003-04 Calgary Flames had Regher, Lydman, Leopold, Warrener and Ferrence with Montador stepping in for Gauthier come playoff time for a reason I don't recall. Once again at least four guys who'd qualify as top 4 defenderse with Regher playing well enough to be at least a #2 on any team in hockey. Our group isn't in this league.
  
• The 2002-03 New Jersey Devils start with a similar situation to the 06 Oilers as they have one of those elite defenders in Niedermayer. Employ someone that good and you could have 4 bottom pairing defensemen like we do. Of course they didn't, the Devils also happened to have a future Hall of Famer and 2-time cup champion in Scott Stevens. They had a very capeable #2 on any other team in puck moving Brian Rafalski. If those are your top 3, Rory Fitzpatrick could be 4th. Rafalski is only in his third NHL season here, but he's all ready outscoring Niedermayer so he's well established. Colin White is also in his thid full season, but he'd all ready been a full time part of two runs to the Stanley Cup finals and a championship. There's your top 4, and for an encore you have Tverdovsky, Albelein and Daneyko sharing the bottom pairing duties during the cup run. It's almost unfair. I suspect Jason Smith could have cracked the top 4, but it's entirely possible he and Staios would be the 5th and 6th guys on this depth chart. Think about that.
  
• The Anaheim Mighty Ducks of 2002-03 had a similar group to the recent Hurricane team. Sandis Ozolinsh, Niclas Havelid, Keith Carney, Ruslan Salei, Vitali Vishnevsky (in his third pro season) and rookie Kurt Sauer. I'd say this group is even weaker than Carolina's group due to the inclusion of a rookie and the questionable top 4 status of a couple of those guys. They're the group who gives Oiler fans the most hope out of all recent finalists. This group suggests that if we add one legitimate top 4 guy who could run out PP (ala Murray getting Ozolinsh in 03) and Roloson played out of this world hockey for the entire playoff run, we could possibly contend. However, Giguere played so well during this cup run that no team could even hope their goalie would match that. Regardless, this unit is at least a reachable comparison if Lowe makes only one move. At that point we could only be playing a single rookie at a time (or two at most) and would have at least 3 guys who are reliable top 4 defenders.
  

The year before Detroit beat Carolina. Do I need to mention Lidstrom and Chelios? Carolina had a very similar group to the recent Cup winning unit except they had Ozolinsh and Sean Hill (who was playing very good hockey at the time) instead of Commodore and Kaberle.

In 2000-01 Ray Bourque and Rob Blake led Colorado to a Cup win over Scott Niedermayer and Scott Stevens. Of course, Scott and Scott had just won a cup of their own the year before.

Point made?

As it stands, this small sample of the last several Stanley Cup finalists makes it clear that Kevin Lowe must trade for at least two reliable, veteran defensemen who would qualify for almost any team's top 4. If he doesn't, we shouldn't even bother showing up for the playoffs. One or no moves means we're not even trying to win it all. With a 37 year old goalie and 2 key unrestricted free agents (Smyth and Sykora) that would be a shockingly foolish course of action.

Get it done, Kevin.

(P.S. I also think we need at least another two-way forward. We've got basically a whole fourth line of rookies, and that's not going to cut it. It would be cool if we could bring in someone like Radek Dvorak or Dallas Drake from the Blues. How about Jackman, Brewer or Backman with Drake or Dvorak? I'm sure we have the horses to make that happen. Larry, lets talk!)

2006

I've been trying to avoid the typical traps of the new year.

It all started because it looked like I would have absolutely nothing to do for the big night itself. I had been seeing a girl and my plans were going to be with her, and that fell through. That's dating for you. It's interesting, I suspected dating here would be quite slow and frustrating. Dating is always somewhat frustrating I'm sure, but there are interesting women in my age range. I've found that I do quite enjoy the initial getting to know you stage. It took me a while to warm to it, and it'll take me even longer to really open myself to someone new, but I'm at least interested again.

Anyhow, after those plans fell through I kind of reminded myself how I've always felt New Year's Eve was an overhyped dissapointment. Every year people want it to be something more than it is. There are grand expectations of a huge party or life changing event that it never lives up to. I figured if I just try to live it like any other silly day it'll all be fine.

But then at the last minute I went skating for a bit at a New Year's event at our local rink, then I got invited out to a dance thing in a little place called Keady. I looked pretty good last night actually, and you don't often hear me saying that. So going through all those motions made me think about the year end.

At this time last year I was ringing in the New Year with Mom, Dad and Amy after my first three weeks in Owen Sound. I'd never lived anywhere but Ottawa my entire life. I was only a few days removed from missing my first family Christmas, and a couple weeks removed from missing my Grandmother's funeral. Needless to say it was a shock to the system and I was kind of numb to it all.

(I'll note here that this year's holidays was a tremendous treat. I'm planning to blog all about it when Mom and Dad send me the pictures. They came up and got a cottage in a nearby town so the whole family could be together. I was thrilled to spend a solid week with my family again - I miss the hell out of them.)

A year later I ring in 2007 with my friends Crystal and Ali (and several of their friends who I've only met briefly) from our sister station in Port Elgin. I've barely known them a month and a half, and I was otherwise in a room full of strangers. I've lived on my own for more than a year. I have a 6 month old puppy. I've seen my old friends from Ottawa that I love so much at most 2 or 3 times in that entire year. Oh, and I'm single after spending nearly 4 years with Amy.

I'm also making my first jump into the world of sports broadcasting that I've dreamed about ever since I was a kid doing play by play for my own baseball games in the backyard and hockey games in the street. I had no intention of winding up in front of a TV camera, but it's been an unexpected and fun surprise. I even got a chance to be in the broadcast booth for an OHL game televised live in my hometown while my friends watched. I have a regular gig that I feel I'm improving at every week. It's been a struggle at times as I have no training to do what I do there, but I hope my passion is carrying me.

Now as for the primary reason I moved here - I'm over a year into my on air radio career. The year mark is a very important one in radio. It instantly gives me substancially more credibility than I would have had even at 6-9 months. It means I stuck it out this long without quitting or being fired. I'm a professional now. I think it opens up more doors if I ever chose to leave, but it also gives me more credibility around the office I work in.

I say this a lot, but I'm much richer for the experience I've had here in Owen Sound. I don't get paid well, but I get paid in resume building. Our radio station is more devoted to local news coverage than most in this level of market, and it's given me a lot of opportunities. Instead of simply reading and writing the news I've also been able to report on municipal politics, federal elections, crimes (including a hostage situation), sports and some events that I'd never have learned a thing about if I wern't here. Think fish derbies and farm equipment fairs.

I've been able to participate as a host, "expert" pannelist and interviewer for both news and sports talk programs. That's something I've always seen as a goal and never thought I'd be able to participate in yet. A few times when we're short for a guest I get called in and can do things like spend 12 minutes talking about the Liberal leadership race or the kind of season the local hockey team is having. I love that stuff. I've even had a few interview segments that have received special praise by some people at work whose opinions mean a lot to me. I also may even get the chance to take a very active role on our sports talk show in the next few months. It's a great opportunity that I'm certainly excited about.

At this stage of my career I have to keep an eye on how much more I can learn and when is the appropriate time to move on. I believe there' s a lot more I can learn here. I also know it's not going to be my last stop. Maybe I'll feel like there's a lot more to learn elsewhere within 6 months, a year, 2 years... it's hard to say. I think it's important to keep my eyes and ears open for other opportunities and make sure I make an appropriate next move. That being said, I also think it's important I take advantage of the situation and varied opportunities I could have here to build my career and help improve the stations.

So looking back at the first year of my "real" career I'm quite happy with how far I've come. I have a ridiculous amount to work on, and I have to make sure I don't get complacent. I know there are things I need big improvement in. Still, I would call my time in Owen Sound thus far a success.

Socially may be another story. I kind of took that all for granted when I knew I had a girlfriend and friends elsewhere. It's time to make a real concerted effort to making and securing strong connections here if I'm going to be happy while I work on my career.

I would say making the proper next move in my career and improving my social situations are my biggest goals for 2007. We'll see how I do.

Oh, and for god's Shawn get in better shape. My endurance is pitiful.

Happy New Year!

If it's broke, fix it!

(The Oilers D could use a kick in the ass like this Finish fellow is about to give Daniel Tjarnqvist)

Watching the last few games it's clear the breakout woes are only getting worse. Teams are keying in on this weakness and really exploiting it to get on top of the Oilers early. Once that happens everyone plays tighter and the forwards don't create the kind of chances needed to take things back. The forwards are worrying too much about the defensive zone due to the inability of our defense, and they're not creating the way we need them to. There's no flow to the Oiler game right now. It's getting desperate. There has to be a move.

Watching them against the Canucks it seems apparently Tjarnqvist is absolutely not suited to anything but a 5-6 role. Neither is Bergeron. Greene is too young to be anything more than that and so is Smid. Hejda has played a very solid and simple game when he's been in the lineup, but he's nothing much more than a 4-5-6 guy himself. He at least isn't mistake prone. That means the Oilers have only 2 top 4 defenders. Neither of those defenders is a #1 and they aren't elite #2s either. I like all our players, but if you're going to run with a depth unit of 6 guys in the back end they have to all be at least possible top 4 guys. It's OK to have a bunch of 5-6s when you have Pronger, but not when you're trying to split the load. That means we either need to land a #1 or 2 top 4 guys if this system is even going to have a hope in hell of working come playoff time.

Who are the options? The biggest problem with making a trade at this point in the season is that there's almost nobody out of the playoff race. The only teams I'm confident in saying won't make it are Philidelphia, Los Angeles, Phoenix and St. Louis. However, even the Blues and Yotes have been playing better hockey lately. Teams are not going to be selling their better players when they're trying to sell a playoff run. There may not be enough teams out of it come deadline time, and if that's the case we're really going to have to overpay in a trade. Thank goodness for lots of young talent. I think it's imperitive that Lowe tries to jump on this early like he did last year. The price only gets bigger the closer you get to the last day.

Possible Defensive Targets

Philidelphia (Worst record in hockey with no playoff hopes)

-Denis Gauthier: Gauthier is out hurt right now but may be a target for a lot of teams once he gets a few games in. He's a -6 so far this year, but he's been a plus player most of his career. Clearly a physical and maybe even a bit slow defenseman, but a guy who knows how to handle the game in his own zone and isn't prone to mistakes. Makes a bit too much money so it's a risk. However, if he works out he'd be locked up.
-Alexei Zhitnik: A quick defenseman with good offensive instincts and a very good shot. What worries me is his decision making. We don't need more risky passes in our zone and he's prone to the occasional mistake. Also just got moved so will he be again?

Florida (Falling behind the pace in their division but still in the race and may wait at least closer to the deadline unless it's a talent for talent deal)

-Ruslan Salei: Physical and nasty. 18 assists in the season so far and that'd rank pretty highly when compared to the guys we have so far. A couple of scouting reports say he also is prone to some numb nuts decisions in his own zone. Clearly all defensemen are at times, but god when we're looking around the key to any guy we get should be confidence and intelligent puck movement. Salei could be dealt if Florida falls off a bit more, but may not be the right guy.
-Mike Van Ryn: I don't think he's going to be available without giving up some significant pieces. Scouting reports and some casual observation tell me that Van Ryn is exactly the type of guy we need. TSN for one says he moves the puck well. Van Ryn is a maturing player with poise and a very reasonable contract that lasts beyond this year. Knowing Jacques Martin I can only assume he loves him. Van Ryn is also only -3 on a mediocre Panthers squad. I'd give up some very impressive talent to land him. This is not a guy you get in a rental deal, it'd have to likely be an overpay to get Florida to budge. Still, he'd make us instantly better.
-Jay Bouwmeester: We wish. Don't even pretend this is possible. Man the guy is +7 on Florida, I sure wish we got him and Horton. How much better would this team be right now if that was the trade instead of the one we did get? Just have to remind myself how much I like Smid's future.

Los Angeles (Poor record and not enough veteran talent to expect anything out of this season)

-Lubomir Visnovsky: Loves to skate the puck up the ice. Great passes and PP quarterback. The only real downfall of Visnovsky's game is his size so he'd be an ideal pairing for Smith or Matt Greene. Absolutely should be our primary target if he's available. Has a great contract with another year on it so he'll cost more than a rental. We can't expect a Spacek or Tarnstrom deal for a man of this caliber - if we get him or Van Ryn we'll pay through the nose to do it. Given the play of our defense they are both exactly the type of players we should pay that much to get.
-Mattias Norstrom: For a veteran stay at home defenseman he's had an off year. Given the contract Norstrom signed and his status as team captain I don't think this is a move either side makes.
-Brent Sopel: He's played very well so far this season. Sopel has a terrific shot and a strong offensive game, but he's not the guy to come in and fix our breakout issues.
-Rob Blake: Makes too much money for his declining game.
-Oleg Tverdovsky: His career is close to over and he'd be a downgrade on Bergeron at this point.

New Jersey (Some cap space issues with one particular player)

-Richard Matvichuk: Can't get back into the lineup when he's healthy because of the financial situation. He's a stable player who doesn't make many mistakes. Not particularely fast, but he's dependable and a good second option. Couldn't be our top pick up but as a second guy he'd work out.

New York Rangers (Free falling with a long losing streak, in the race but could fall out by the deadline)

-Michal Rozsival: He's +6 on a struggling Rangers team. Strong in his own zone but also has 15 assists on the year. Good passer, good decision maker and just an overall good defenseman. I'm not sure if they'd move him but I think he would easily slot himself into our top 4. Not a major impact player like Visnovsky or Van Ryn, but a big improvement and help with the break out for sure

Phoenix (Playing better lately and that may prevent them from making a move unfortunately, but they're still going to be sellers in time)

-Nick Boynton: Hasn't done much offenisvely, but he's reliable in the defensive zone. A strong player with still untapped potential and a decent contract. He's -7 on a bad team. Not really a stand out stat one way or the other. Again I think he'd be a strong pickup but more a top 4 upgrade than a major move.
-Derek Morris: Prone to giving the puck away and has never lived up to his offensive potential. Lots of people have tried to sell Morris as something more than he's proved to be in the NHL. I'd be unhappy if this is who we picked up.
-Ed Jovanovski: Too much money for too long a term. However, I did want to note he's played a lot better than he's been given credit for in some places. Plus he's only a -1. Also I'll use this spot to mention how we are not going to pry away one of their good young guys.

St. Louis (Playing much better hockey with Murray behind the bench but this is still not a playoff team)

-Christian Backman: As far as I know he's not a UFA so I don't know why he'd be moved. If he is... someone correct me. I've seen him play a few times and like how simple and effective his game is in the defensive zone. TSN also notes he's very good at moving the puck out of his zone. Simple stuff but what we desperately need. Still has some untapped potential and no huge contract to worry about. He's got a terrific +5 on the Blues and that's intriguing.
-Eric Brewer: We know his game and we know he'd be an upgrade on what we have. How much of one is hard to say given the nature of his time in St. Louis thus far. He's not going to be an impact player on the PP but he does have a good breakout game and is at least mostly reliable.
-Barrett Jackman: Another plus player on a bad team. In his case it's +3. Jackman is not going to contribute offensively, but he plays a simple and physical game. The main concerns about him are not reliability in his own zone, it's his injury history. I would love to grab Jackman, he'd be a huge upgrade defensively over almost anyone on our team. Not a big puck mover, but very sound.

Tampa Bay (Not enough depth on this team and their goaltending didn't improve enough so it looks like they may fall out of the race, but will it be by the deadline?)

-Dan Boyle: Putting up terrific numbers offensively and still barely a minus on a team that hasn't been playing well. Boyle does everything well and only really lacks size. He's a huge part of this Tampa team and one would imagnie he's only going to be up for grabs if they really are giving up on the season. Boyle is the best of all available defensemen in terms of the overall game he could bring to the team. He also has a Stanley Cup ring and his salary isn't out of whack. Tampa would be interested in some cheaper depth pieces too. Wouldn't MAB's contract be attractive with a cheap prospect like Gilbert who could step in this year. I imagine for any trade to occur they'd have to go on a really bad run.
-Filip Kuba: A very good season for Kuba thus far. He's a +4 with a lot of assists and a good overall game. Not a top pair talent but again an upgrade if Tampa starts selling.

There will be more options, especially in talent for talent deals or if any other teams go on big slides. As it stands though this is the core of guys that I can see us having a chance at. This is how I'd rank them when considering contract and talent.

1) Lubimir Visnovsky
2) Mike Van Ryn
3) Dan Boyle
4) Christian Backman
5) Barrett Jackman
6) Michal Rozsival
7) Nick Boynton
8) Filip Kuba
9) Eric Brewer
10) Ruslan Salei

(Edit: I'm very tempted to do a bunch of fantasy trades but I always hate how those come out. I'll note that only the first three guys on this list would be worth moving a 1rst round pick as part of a deal.)